Taiwan election 2024: Ukraine conflict stirs growing fears of war as voters mull ways to counter the ‘China threat’

The war in Ukraine will cast a long shadow as Taiwan heads to the polls next Saturday to elect a new president, amid growing fears of conflict with an increasingly aggressive China and opinion divided on how to handle the threat.

With politics polarised between two blocs – one seen as more pro-Beijing and the other as favouring a more independent, global role – some voters are turning to a third party, which could end up holding the balance of power.

The founder and leader of the Taiwan People’s Party is 64-year-old doctor turned politician Ko Wen-je, who despite his age is a skilful social media user. He speaks swiftly with a sense of lightness and humour, sharing his sympathy for Taiwan’s youth in their struggles with low wages and high rents.

As one of the three presidential candidates in the pivotal 2024 election, Ko is trailing his competitors in public opinion polls. On social media, he is a clear leader.

On Instagram, Ko has over 1.1 million followers, far more than William Lai Ching-te – who is running for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) – and Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang (KMT). Ko also controls the narrative on TikTok, where his two opponents have not yet opened accounts. 

Since the self-ruled island held its first direct presidential election in 1996, its governance has rotated between two major parties: the blue camp dominated by the KMT, which once ruled China and retreated to Taiwan after defeat by the communists in 1949; and the green camp of the DPP, a party established in 1986 following resistance to the KMT’s authoritarian rule at the time. 

On January 13, Taiwan will elect a successor to the DPP’s Tsai Ing-wen, who has governed the island for eight years – a maximum two terms – as well as 113 members of the Legislative Yuan, in an election that will largely define the island’s relations with China, the US and how it handles domestic issues over the next four years.

Not Hong Kong, not Ukraine 

The atmosphere differs markedly from the 2020 election. 

Held in the wake of large-scale protests in Hong Kong against Beijing’s growing control and an escalating US-China trade war, the phrase “sense of national demise” trended in Taiwan prior to that vote. 

Han Kuo-yu, the KMT candidate and a staunchly pro-Beijing politician, claimed that the DPP’s alleged desire to declare formal independence for Taiwan was a threat to the island’s very existence.

On the other hand, supporters of the DPP, as well as Taiwan’s youth, feared a possible crackdown by Beijing, just as in Hong Kong. The choice framed by the DPP was simple: vote for the green camp to defend Taiwan against the threat from China. 

Unlike in much of the West, Taiwan’s political spectrum is not divided along left-right or conservative-liberal lines; instead, the two camps are distinguished by their views on China. While the blue camp tends to be Beijing-friendly, the green camp emphasises the threat the mainland poses and wants Taiwan to be more independent in navigating its global role. 

On January 11, 2020, the DPP’s Tsai Ing-wen was re-elected president with a record 8.17 million votes. 

Four years later, the campaign narrative has changed amid the perception of a heightened threat from Beijing, although economic issues such as housing and welfare as well as corruption have also attracted voters’ attention. 

Liu Wen, a researcher at Academia Sinica who studies security issues, said concerns about a possible conflict had become more tangible over the past four years and there was more debate about Taiwan’s defences and military service. 

“Compared to 2020, Taiwanese anxiety of war is stronger and people have developed divided opinions on how to deal with the China threat,” Liu told HKFP in Mandarin.

Fears have grown that Taiwan will be the next Ukraine, which was invaded by Russia in February 2022, as Beijing repeatedly stresses its determination to unite with the self-ruled island, by force if necessary. 

In August 2022, then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan and met President Tsai, triggering unprecedented and extended military exercises around the island by the Chinese military. Beijing claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has criticised what it considers US interference on the Taiwan issue.

The war in Ukraine and Chinese military exercises stirred fierce debate, Liu said. Some urged their leaders not to provoke China and not to get too close to the US or to increase the defence budget. Others argued for a contrary course – a better-equipped military and a closer relationship with Washington. 

Hsiao Yi-ching, research fellow of the Election Study Center and jointly appointed political science professor at National Chengchi University, told HKFP in a phone interview that the Ukraine conflict had been crucial in influencing Taiwanese opinion. “Having seen that the US did not send troops to Ukraine, some think that might be the same situation for Taiwan in the future. ” 

Amid growing geopolitical tensions, Hsiao said some were left feeling helpless.

“How to deal with the China threat? There is a big gap between ideals and the reality. Both reunification and independence involve a lot of uncertainties. People are not willing to see Taiwan becoming Hong Kong if reunification happens, they also don’t wish Taiwan to become Ukraine if it claims independence,” Hsiao said.

Taiwan identity

“While we look at this election, [who to vote for] is not simply a question of Taiwan identity. It involves complicated factors. Most people consider themselves as Taiwanese and hope to maintain the so-called status quo of sovereign independence, but as to which strategy should be adopted [to do so], they think differently, ” Liu said in Mandarin.

“Therefore there might be people who want to defend their country and who have a strong sense of Taiwan identity, but who will vote for Ko or Hou.”

According to the Taiwan National Security Survey conducted in late 2022 by Duke University , over 62 per cent of those surveyed described themselves as Taiwanese, with around 31 per cent saying they are both Taiwanese and Chinese. Only 3.9 per cent of participants described themselves only as Chinese. 

Some 77 per cent said they would reject unification if China and Taiwan differed greatly at the time in terms of their politics, economy and society, with over 40 per cent “strongly rejecting” the idea.

However, more respondents to the 2022 survey said they believed the US would not deploy troops to assist Taiwan if China declared war than in a survey in late 2020. 

In 2020, before the Russia-Ukraine war took place, when asked whether the US would send troops if war were declared, over 67 per cent said they thought the US “would” and “probably would”.

Two years later, when asked what moves the US would make if war were declared on Taiwan, around 33 per cent thought that the US would send troops, with some 34 per cent believing the US would only provide weapons.

Fatigue of polarised politics

Hsiao said amid a sense of helplessness about Taiwan’s fate, there was also rising dissatisfaction or even disgust with the island’s polarised politics, a factor which had led to Ko’s rise. 

In trending online videos, Ko speaks repeatedly of “transcending the blue and the green” and of being practical instead of ideological. He criticises the blue camp for getting too close to China and the green camp for being too provocative, and says he will find a solution better for the island. 

Once a supporter of the green camp, in recent years Ko has got closer to the blue camp, facing criticism over his wavering political stance. Hsiao said that while Ko had not put forward firm views, he had brought a sense of freshness to certain voters by being “non-green and non-blue. ”

“Those who feel fatigued with the highly polarised political situation may seek a third way,” Hsiao said in Mandarin. 

After twice being elected mayor of Taipei, Ko founded the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) in 2019 and rapidly built it into a third political force. According to polling by the Election Study Centre, TPP support grew from 4.9 per cent in 2020 to12.1 per cent in June 2023. 

Prior to the election, the TPP had become the third most popular party in opinion polls – after the DPP with 27.3 per cent and the KMT with 18.1 per cent of supporters. Around 40 per cent of respondents claimed to be independent or gave no response.

According to the Taiwan National Security Survey conducted at the end of 2022, the 20 to 29 age group, which makes up around 16 per cent of the electorate, had the highest percentage of swing voters – a group that Ko has been striving to win over with his pragmatism and social media skills. 

Independent voters

In order to consolidate their base and appeal to more independent voters, the candidates for vice-president have been carefully selected. 

The DPP’s Lai, considered “deep green” and a supporter of Taiwan’s independence, has nominated Hsiao Bi-khim, a former member of the Legislative Yuan and Taiwan’s representative to the US from 2020 to 2023. 

Amanda Hsiao, senior analyst for China at the International Crisis Group (ICG), told HKFP that by nominating Hsiao, Lai was trying to signal continuity with the policies Tsai set over the past eight years. 

Hsiao Bi-khim, an advocate of LGBTQ rights, might also attract voters beyond the green camp and had international experience and familiarity with Washington. 

“For the DPP they’re still pointing to the China threat, but not in the same way as in 2020. I think their focus is really more about how they’re going to bring Taiwan further onto the global stage,” Amanda Hsiao said. 

The KMT’s Hou had needed to strengthen his support within the blue camp. “There have been questions about whether Hou is the strongest candidate to represent the camp. And Hou represents a more moderate side of the camp,” the ICG analyst said. By choosing Jaw Shaw-kong, a current affairs commentator considered to be deeper blue, Hou was trying to consolidate his own support. 

“The question about the tactic is whether the vice presidential candidate appeals to voters beyond the KMT’s base. Because in order to win, you need more than just your base coming out to vote for you,” Amanda Hsiao said. 

While the two parties compete with each other, Ko has been harvesting votes in between. He has talked much about the green and blue camps “dividing the nation” and his desire to “win [it] back” for the public. 

Livelihood issues are also a focus of Ko’s canvassing. Taiwan’s per capita growth domestic product (GDP) has grown over the past three years and now surpasses South Korea. The increase was mainly led by the rapid growth of high-tech industries such as semiconductors and automotive lithium-ion batteries. 

According to Taiwan media outlet The Reporter, increased GDP does not translate into a feeling of greater well-being, and the gap between rich and poor is rising. Young people have been struggling to find affordable housing to rent or buy. 

In his election campaign, Ko has attacked the DPP’s failure to control property prices and to offer enough social housing. His policies are largely focused on offering more social housing and introducing a property ownership tax.

Polls suggest that young and better-educated people make up a large percentage of Ko’s supporters. According to a survey conducted by media outlet Formosa, over 40 per cent of voters aged 20 to 29 supported Ko, while over 30 per cent of voters with university-evel education or above also backed him. 

A minority government coming?

Amanda Hsiao said Beijing’s interference in Taiwan’s election had become more subtle compared with the last election, adding that it may have learned that more overt interference would boomerang and increase support for the green camp. 

Polls show the DPP’s Lai leading the race after an attempt by Ko and Hou to form a joint coalition collapsed. They could not agree on who would run for president and who for vice-president. 

In the last pre-election polls released on January 2 of 10 different surveys, Lai was still in the lead, closely followed by Hou and then by Ko. However, Lai’s approval rate in most polls was less than 40 per cent and even if he wins the presidency his party is unlikely to secure a majority in the Legislative Yuan. 

Amanda Hsiao said the DPP was expected to operate a minority government over the next four years. “With a divided government, there will be a check on the DPP and Lai with the KMT and TPP opposing all sorts of things [in the Legislative Yuan]. ”  

“Both parties [KMT and DPP] are actually campaigning on reforming defence, but it’s unclear how it will play out when they work together and form the opposition to the DPP,” she said. 

If the blue camp secured an unexpected win, the ICG analyst predicted a brief honeymoon period between Taiwan and China. 

“Then after a period of time, Beijing might seek more progress on cross-strait relations. But at that point, we will face challenges because the Taiwanese population will not necessarily be supportive of that. And there will be tension again. ”

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